Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.306755 2.452800 2.607512 2.784322 2.981682 3.196250 3.448591
2025-08-03 2.081436 2.279260 2.499477 2.765261 3.080766 3.447833 3.914112
2025-08-10 1.934759 2.160288 2.419871 2.745319 3.149274 3.644008 4.312323
2025-08-17 1.819080 2.061007 2.346615 2.715468 3.189972 3.796406 4.660404
2025-08-24 1.724457 1.976942 2.281231 2.684007 3.218163 3.926775 4.986374
2025-08-31 1.660109 1.923860 2.247862 2.686803 3.286228 4.111294 5.407673
2025-09-07 1.610934 1.885494 2.228793 2.704144 3.371810 4.324804 5.899879
2025-09-14 1.544005 1.820298 2.170282 2.662839 3.369586 4.407193 6.193047
2025-09-21 1.483161 1.759616 2.113807 2.619506 3.359122 4.473307 6.465402
2025-09-28 1.424502 1.698974 2.054005 2.567144 3.330102 4.505667 6.680676
2025-10-05 1.404703 1.688280 2.060257 2.607697 3.442009 4.772636 7.371111
2025-10-12 1.387697 1.680175 2.069043 2.651546 3.561369 5.064333 8.172104
2025-10-19 1.370496 1.671511 2.077150 2.695721 3.686571 5.385122 9.125085
2025-10-26 1.334607 1.635841 2.045528 2.678022 3.709266 5.524607 9.713225
2025-11-02 1.300860 1.601779 2.014528 2.659114 3.727755 5.657469 10.321445
2025-11-09 1.266506 1.565611 1.978890 2.630780 3.727486 5.753454 10.863916
2025-11-16 1.233809 1.530658 1.943574 2.600906 3.721935 5.837775 11.401280
2025-11-23 1.212329 1.510755 1.929370 2.603562 3.773541 6.044274 12.358034
2025-11-30 1.195898 1.497388 1.924115 2.620028 3.850856 6.315052 13.625531
2025-12-07 1.165328 1.462850 1.886005 2.580800 3.822519 6.351974 14.142508
2025-12-14 1.135729 1.428937 1.847756 2.539624 3.787760 6.370699 14.609029
2025-12-21 1.105223 1.392981 1.805378 2.489838 3.733626 6.339559 14.887188
2025-12-28 1.098806 1.391747 1.815538 2.528398 3.851286 6.725282 16.993163